So, after all that fuss, which pollster (or meta-poll analyst) was the most accurate on the eve of the November 4th election?
I made the following chart to compare the election eve predictions of various major pollsters (and poll analysis sites) to see how their final projections compared with the actual numbers. The first column is how far off each outfit was in predicting the margin of victory (Obama minus McCain). The second column is Obama; the third McCain; the fourth is how far off each was for Obama; the fifth is how far off each was for McCain. The final row averages the numbers. The numbers are from 11/03/08, as reported around the web:
The chart and some comments follow after the jump...