UPDATE #2: Murphy's lead went from 168 down to 86 this afternoon, but that is actually very good news for the Democrat -- as these results now include the much-feared results from Tedisco stronghold Saratoga county... Use this link to check the official numbers...
The justifiably celebrated Nate Silver of 538.com predicts that Scott Murphy will win the hotly-contested race for New York 20th Congressional Distict handily, by "500-600" votes.
(How cool would it be if Murphy won by 538 votes exactly?)
Silver, for those who just bought their first computer, is the baseball statistics genius who very precisely predicted the outcomes of both the 2008 Democratic primaries and the general election. If anything, he says, he may be underestimating Murphy's margin, given Jimmy Disco's Colemanesque strategery:
More teabag tax day updates below the fold...